125,000 simulations
The Model
All 48 teams across every stage probability — sortable. Champion %, finalist %, reach-SF/QF/R16/R32, win-group %, expected group points and mean finish, from 125,000 simulations conditioned on results to date.
Live · 2026-06-25 · Day 15/39
Full forecast
| Team | Champion▼ | Final | SF | QF | R16 | R32 | Win grp | Advance | xPts | Finish | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1ArgentinaJ | 29.3% | 42.7% | 63.8% | 80.6% | 91.1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8.91 | 6.0 | |
| 2BrazilC | 13.6% | 22.2% | 42.5% | 62.8% | 78.9% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 7.00 | 9.6 | |
| 3FranceI | 13.6% | 26.0% | 40.1% | 54.6% | 87.8% | 100% | 88.0% | 100% | 8.21 | 9.0 | |
| 4SpainH | 8.5% | 18.6% | 34.3% | 47.0% | 73.8% | 100% | 78.9% | 100% | 5.86 | 11.5 | |
| 5GermanyE | 7.0% | 16.6% | 28.3% | 42.4% | 86.2% | 100% | 99.9% | 100% | 8.35 | 10.5 | |
| 6EnglandL | 6.5% | 12.4% | 27.7% | 52.7% | 82.1% | 100% | 87.4% | 100% | 6.66 | 10.5 | |
| 7PortugalK | 6.2% | 13.2% | 26.0% | 49.8% | 74.7% | 100% | 49.1% | 100% | 5.75 | 11.6 | |
| 8NetherlandsF | 4.7% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 49.7% | 61.1% | 100% | 79.1% | 100% | 6.63 | 13.3 | |
| 9USAD | 2.0% | 7.2% | 19.9% | 50.9% | 76.7% | 100% | 99.6% | 100% | 7.97 | 11.6 | |
| 10ColombiaK | 1.8% | 5.3% | 14.0% | 35.4% | 64.2% | 100% | 50.9% | 100% | 6.98 | 14.2 | |
| 11MexicoA | 1.6% | 4.1% | 13.4% | 35.6% | 74.8% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 9.00 | 13.0 | |
| 12BelgiumG | 1.3% | 3.9% | 10.7% | 24.3% | 67.5% | 96.1% | 36.5% | 96.1% | 4.66 | 15.2 | |
| 13CroatiaL | 1.1% | 3.3% | 9.0% | 21.7% | 43.2% | 96.2% | 9.2% | 96.2% | 5.09 | 18.3 | |
| 14MoroccoC | 0.7% | 2.8% | 7.2% | 25.7% | 37.1% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 7.00 | 18.3 | |
| 15UruguayH | 0.5% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 10.4% | 22.6% | 46.8% | 18.4% | 46.8% | 2.88 | 29.5 | |
| 16NorwayI | 0.4% | 1.6% | 6.0% | 16.2% | 62.4% | 100% | 12.0% | 100% | 6.57 | 15.8 | |
| 17JapanF | 0.3% | 1.3% | 4.3% | 15.9% | 32.8% | 100% | 16.2% | 100% | 5.54 | 19.5 | |
| 18SwitzerlandB | 0.3% | 1.2% | 4.4% | 22.4% | 59.5% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 7.00 | 15.9 | |
| 19AustriaJ | 0.1% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 8.7% | 25.7% | 96.8% | 0.0% | 96.8% | 4.70 | 21.3 | |
| 20CanadaB | 0.1% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 18.5% | 66.7% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 15.3 | |
| 21Ivory CoastE | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 6.8% | 35.8% | 97.7% | 0.1% | 97.7% | 5.35 | 20.1 | |
| 22SwedenF | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 8.1% | 24.6% | 95.7% | 4.8% | 95.7% | 4.17 | 21.7 | |
| 23SenegalI | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 5.9% | 17.6% | 56.6% | 0.0% | 56.6% | 2.08 | 28.9 | |
| 24South KoreaA | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 10.3% | 32.6% | 91.9% | 0.0% | 91.9% | 3.00 | 21.2 | |
| 25AustraliaD | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 32.6% | 93.9% | 0.4% | 93.9% | 4.55 | 21.3 | |
| 26EgyptG | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 8.1% | 36.6% | 100% | 45.7% | 100% | 5.20 | 19.6 | |
| 27IranG | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 5.0% | 26.3% | 69.9% | 17.9% | 69.9% | 3.51 | 25.8 | |
| 28GhanaL | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 5.3% | 18.6% | 100% | 3.3% | 100% | 4.68 | 21.9 | |
| 29AlgeriaJ | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 4.4% | 15.9% | 71.5% | 0.0% | 71.5% | 4.02 | 26.9 | |
| 30Bosnia & HerzegovinaB | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 6.2% | 18.6% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 21.9 | |
| 31ParaguayD | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 16.0% | 72.9% | 0.0% | 72.9% | 4.16 | 26.8 | |
| 32South AfricaA | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 5.2% | 33.3% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 20.2 | |
| 33EcuadorE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 9.3% | 0.0% | 9.3% | 1.46 | 38.7 | |
| 34ScotlandC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 5.9% | 35.9% | 0.0% | 35.9% | 3.00 | 34.0 | |
| 35TurkeyD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 7.6% | 0.77 | 39.1 | |
| 36DR CongoK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 5.5% | 42.3% | 0.0% | 42.3% | 2.55 | 33.0 | |
| 37Saudi ArabiaH | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 39.7% | 0.0% | 39.7% | 2.49 | 33.9 | |
| 38Cape VerdeH | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 3.3% | 60.4% | 2.6% | 60.4% | 3.22 | 30.4 | |
| 39CuraçaoE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 9.0% | 1.46 | 39.0 | |
| 40Czech RepublicA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.00 | 40.5 | |
| 41HaitiC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 40.5 | |
| 42IraqI | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.68 | 40.0 | |
| 43JordanJ | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.05 | 40.4 | |
| 44New ZealandG | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 1.23 | 39.8 | |
| 45PanamaL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.22 | 40.4 | |
| 46QatarB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.00 | 40.5 | |
| 47TunisiaF | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.25 | 40.5 | |
| 48UzbekistanK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.15 | 40.1 |
Tap a column header to sort. R32 = reached the knockout stage. xPts = expected group points.
Advancement matrix
| Team | Advance | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 100 | 91 | 81 | 64 | 43 | 29 |
| Brazil | 100 | 79 | 63 | 42 | 22 | 14 |
| France | 100 | 88 | 55 | 40 | 26 | 14 |
| Spain | 100 | 74 | 47 | 34 | 19 | 9 |
| Germany | 100 | 86 | 42 | 28 | 17 | 7 |
| England | 100 | 82 | 53 | 28 | 12 | 6 |
| Portugal | 100 | 75 | 50 | 26 | 13 | 6 |
| Netherlands | 100 | 61 | 50 | 22 | 12 | 5 |
| USA | 100 | 77 | 51 | 20 | 7 | 2 |
| Colombia | 100 | 64 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 2 |
| Mexico | 100 | 75 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| Morocco | 100 | 37 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Norway | 100 | 62 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Japan | 100 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Switzerland | 100 | 59 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Canada | 100 | 67 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Egypt | 100 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | · |
| Ghana | 100 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | · |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 100 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | · |
| South Africa | 100 | 33 | 5 | 0 | · | · |
| Ivory Coast | 98 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 0 | · |
| Austria | 97 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Croatia | 96 | 43 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| Belgium | 96 | 67 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 1 |
| Sweden | 96 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 0 | · |
| Australia | 94 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | · |
| South Korea | 92 | 33 | 10 | 2 | 0 | · |
| Paraguay | 73 | 16 | 2 | 0 | · | · |
| Algeria | 71 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | · |
| Iran | 70 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | · |
| Cape Verde | 60 | 3 | 1 | · | · | · |
| Senegal | 57 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | · |
| Uruguay | 47 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| DR Congo | 42 | 5 | 1 | 0 | · | · |
| Saudi Arabia | 40 | 2 | 0 | · | · | · |
| Scotland | 36 | 6 | 1 | 0 | · | · |
| Ecuador | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | · | · |
| Curaçao | 9 | 1 | · | · | · | · |
| Turkey | 8 | 1 | 0 | · | · | · |
| New Zealand | 4 | 1 | · | · | · | · |
| Iraq | 3 | 0 | · | · | · | · |
| Uzbekistan | 3 | 0 | · | · | · | · |
| Panama | 1 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Jordan | 0 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Czech Republic | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Haiti | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Qatar | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Tunisia | · | · | · | · | · | · |