Day 15 of 39 · 125,000 simulations
World Cup '26
A self-updating forecast for the men's World Cup — refreshed every morning and conditioned on every result so far.
The contenders
Argentina
to lift the trophy
Probability of winning
48
Nations
104
Matches
125K
Sims / morning
15
Day of 39
The title race
Every contender, every morning
Champion % · by day| Team | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-13 | 2026-06-14 | 2026-06-15 | 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-18 | 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-20 | 2026-06-21 | 2026-06-22 | 2026-06-23 | 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 21.7 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.3 | 24.2 | 23.7 | 26.0 | 25.7 | 26.1 | 26.4 | 26.0 | 28.2 | 30.5 | 30.4 | 29.3 |
| Brazil | 15.8 | 15.9 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 13.6 |
| France | 13.3 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 13.6 | 15.4 | 15.3 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 14.8 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 13.6 |
| Spain | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 8.5 |
| Germany | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| England | 7.3 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 6.5 |
| Portugal | 8.0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| Netherlands | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| Field | 12.7 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 13.8 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 10.7 |
Latest results · Wed, Jun 24
Day 15 Recap
Favorites mostly held, but the field tightened around the big guns.
- ▸Brazil 3-0 Scotland — clean sheet, statement win.
- ▸Mexico 3-0 Czech Republic — comprehensive control.
- ▸Bosnia & Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar — never in doubt.
- ▸Morocco 4-2 Haiti — open game, Morocco's firepower decisive.
- ▸Switzerland 2-1 Canada — narrow but earned.
- ▸South Africa 1-0 South Korea [UPSET] — the day's lone shock, a single goal flipping the favorite.
BC Place, Vancouver
Lumen Field, Seattle
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Stat of the day
Upset of the day: South Africa downed South Korea despite pre-match win odds near 32%.
Daily briefing
The Story
Day 15 belonged to the favorites — five of six pre-match picks delivered, and the goals flowed. Brazil and Mexico posted clean 3-0 wins, Bosnia and Morocco scored freely, and only South Africa's 1-0 edging of South Korea broke the chalk.
The model rewarded Brazil's statement performance with the day's biggest move, +1.66 pts to 13.6%, lifting them into a dead heat with France for second. Argentina still sit comfortably atop the board at 29.3%, but their -1.11 pt slide reflects a tightening race rather than any stumble. England's -0.96 pt drift to 6.5% is the notable soft spot among the European pack.
Beneath the top tier, Mexico (+0.35) and Netherlands (+0.36) nudged upward, while Spain, Portugal, and Colombia all eased back slightly. The contender hierarchy is clear: Argentina alone, then a Brazil–France pair, with Spain, Germany, England, and Portugal clustered between 6 and 9 percent.
Next up, watch whether Brazil can sustain their climb toward Argentina and whether the chasing Europeans can arrest their drift. The margins at the top are now the story.
Did you know
- Brazil's 3-0 win over Scotland fueled the day's biggest jump: **+1.66 pts** to **13.6%**, drawing level with France.
- Argentina remain the clear favorite at **29.3%** despite shedding **1.11 pts** — more than double Brazil's title odds.
- South Africa 1-0 South Korea was the day's only upset across six matches.
- England dropped **0.96 pts** to **6.5%**, the largest fall among contenders without playing a marquee result.
- Three of six matches were 3-goal-margin wins: Brazil, Mexico, and Bosnia all won 3-1 or better.
Shape of the day · Volatility
Takeaway Argentina's title odds have been the most volatile, swinging by ±2.9 points day to day.