World Cup '26
← The Daily
Group DMatch 59
Turkey
vsScheduled
USA
Friday, June 26, 202610:00 PM EDT2:00 AM UTCSoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

Prediction

17%Draw 25%57%
17%

Turkey

25%

Draw

57%

USA

Expected goals 0.941.85

Analyst note

The USA are firm favourites at 57% with a 1.85-0.94 xG edge over Turkey, who at 17% will lean on the 25% draw chance to spring an upset.
Cup ’26 Model · AI insight

Scoreline distribution

Turkey goalsUSA goals →
0123450
8
10
11
7
3
1
1
4
12
10
6
3
1
2
3
5
5
3
1
0
3
1
2
1
1
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0

Cells show probability (%). Gold outline = most likely scoreline.

Recent form

Turkey

  • L02vs Australia

USA

  • W41vs Paraguay